Intel Buys Stake in ASML

Pretty ballsy deal to keep pace with Moore’s Law. Intel may just have kicked 450mm and EUV into overdrive! Nikon, the main competitor to ASML for chip lithography equipment, is not going to like this. The deal could eventually help reduce chip production costs by up to 40%. But it does come at a price. Don’t know about its ultimate demise but this is pretty much what the slow-down in Moore’s Law looks like. The economy of scale of making things smaller is diminishing and advanced technology nodes are delivering less while costing increasingly more to develop. And, as seen by this deal, suppliers like ASML are not going to eat a big chunk of the costs like they did in the 200-to-300nm conversion.  Will be interesting to see how this plays out. Not convinced that EUV will be ready, as predicted, by 2015. Too many delays already, but maybe this cash infusion will indeed accelerate development.

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Wisdom of the Crowds? Or Folly Thereof?

Source: NYT

After the better part of a decade in which various markets, from Intrade to the stock market, became many people’s preferred way to peer into the future, a backlash is clearly under way. Not so long ago, knowing about the existence of Intrade was a mark of being in the vanguard. Today, mocking Intrade, ideally on Twitter, is a sign of sophistication. Markets are at their best when they can synthesize large amounts of disparate information, as on an election night. Experts are most useful when a system exists to identify the most truly knowledgeable – a system that often resembles a market.

I remember a few years back Paul Krugman in the New York Times titled a blog post on prediction markets “Nobody Knows Anything.” So, there.

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